收费公路资产证券化定价及发行方法研究

从数据驱动视角出发，本文探讨收费公路资产支持证券的结构化定价方法。首先，构建反 映交通量风险特征的收费公路通行收入自回归积分滑动平均模型；其次，基于瀑布式偿付结构和 到期收益率Nelson-Siegel模型计算不同等级证券发债规模与息票利率；最后结合成渝高速和渝 蓉高速现实数据进行仿真分析。研究发现，高速公路成熟期的通行收入具有尖峰厚尾特征，成长 期的通行收入更兼具显著的波动聚集效应。数据驱动的定价模型能够刻画通行收入的风险特 征，合理估计优先级的证券融资比例，比只考虑利率风险的现金流折现法更具有优势；从发行方 式来看，合并发行的融资结构显著优于单独发行。管理启示是改变以单个高速公路项目为基础 的特许经营权融资，通过绩优绩差项目的合并发行优化融资结构。     

地面注汽管线表面散热损失影响因素分析

文中采用Fluent模拟与理论计算结合比较的方法,研究了不同因素对蒸汽管道散热损失的影响规律,并分析了理论计算模型的相对误差。发现增加注汽管线距地面高度,对其散热损失影响较弱;空气温度升高,注汽管道表面散热损失降低;风速和表面发射率对注汽管线表面热损失影响较大;数值模拟结果与理论计算数据相对误差较大。     

A statistical analysis of consumer perceptions towards automated vehicles and their intended adoption

ABSTRACT

While automated vehicle (AV) development continues to progress rapidly, how the public will accept and adopt automated vehicles remains an open question. Using extensive survey data, we apply cluster analysis to better understand consumer perceptions toward potential benefits and concerns related to AVs with regard to factors influencing their AV adoption likelihood. Four market segments are identified – ‘benefits-dominated,’ ‘concerns-dominated,’ ‘uncertain,’ and ‘well-informed.’ A random parameters multinomial logit model is then estimated to identify factors influencing the probability of respondents belonging to one of these four market segments. Among other influences (such as socio-economic and current travel characteristics), it is found that ‘Millennials’ have a higher probability of belonging to the well-informed market segment, ‘Gen-Xers’ with a lower probability to the uncertain market segment, and ‘Baby Boomers’ with a higher probability to the concerns-dominated market (relative to the ‘Great Generation’). We also study the individuals’ expressed likelihood of AV adoption using separate random parameters ordered probit estimations for each of the four market segments. The substantial and statistically significant differences across each AV consumer market segment underscore the potentially large impact that different consumer demographics may have on AV adoption and the need for targeted marketing to achieve better market-penetration outcomes.     

现代城市社区物业管理服务创新模式研究

物业管理作为一个新型的服务行业,近年来随着城市化迅猛建设而呈现高速发展的态势,对现代城市物业管理服务现有的模式进行分析,探索物业管理服务模式的特点,发现其中的问题所在,进一步挖掘物业管理服务企业在各方面多元的服务潜力,物业管理服务企业与业主共同协作延伸增值服务空间,缓解双方之间的矛盾,促进物业管理服务的发展。     

亚帆中心工程环抱形防波堤掩护效果及护面块体稳定性试验研究

针对工程环抱形防波堤平面布置方案,利用整体物理模型试验手段进行了验证。结果表明:1)掩护后传入港内波峰线发生了偏转和波能集中,致使码头局部泊稳条件不满足标准要求。将位轴线顺时针旋转15°,与波峰线平行优化布置后,则满足。2)根据越堤波浪是否冲击港内码头轴线标准,论证10.0、10.5、11.0 m共3个防波提高程掩护体,得出11.0 m是可行的。3)防波堤外侧质量6 t护面块体失稳,经多次优化后采用质量10 t则稳定,弧形转弯处勾连性护面块体受侧向波浪力作用比受正向波浪力偏于危险。4)将试验结果与规范公式计算值进行对比,前者均大,因此对于弧形转弯段的处理应给予关注,尽量遵循规范要求轴线夹角的相关规定。5)试验再次验证了三维港池整体物理模型试验在防波堤稳定性、越浪量和优化设计方面的必要性。     

航海类专业现代学徒制实施路径探析

以航海类专业为例,对现代学徒制人才培养模式的实施路径开展了研究。从现代学徒制职业标准体系的打造、教学团队的构建、教学资源的开发、人才培养模式的创新、人才培养体系的打造等方面论述了企业主导型现代学徒制的实施路径,并总结了实施效果,以期共享现代学徒制航海人才培养经验,提高人才培养质量。     

Structural safety assessment procedure for membrane-type LNG CCS considering hydroelasticity effect

As environmental regulations have become more onerous, the demand for LNG and LNG carriers has increased. The LNG cargo containment system (LNG CCS) is one of the most important facilities in LNG carriers, and many membrane types of LNG CCS have been developed so far. Traditionally, sloshing model tests are performed and a series of statistical approaches are used to obtain design sloshing pressures. Then, these design loads are utilized to analyze the structural safety of LNG CCS. In the sloshing model test, the flat and almost rigid plate is used as the LNG CCS instead of a real model, and thus, the hydroelasticity effect cannot be considered. In the present research, the effect of hydroelasticity on sloshing pressure was investigated in a fluid-structure interaction simulation. A wet drop simulation was conducted, and its results subsequently were compared with wet drop experimental test results to ensure their validity. Then, two types of structure model, namely a flat-rigid plate model and a flat-flexible CCS model, were generated to investigate the effect of hydroelasticity. Also, a fluid hitting analysis model was devised to realize the sloshing phenomenon, and the two generated structure models were applied as the structure domain in the analysis. In the fluid hitting simulations, it was found that the hydroelasticity effect on sloshing pressure is significant. Thus, correction factors, which are quantitative values of the effect of hydroelasticity, were derived (and are proposed herein). Finally, a structural safety assessment procedure for consideration of the hydroelasticity effect was derived (and is suggested herein).     

国外基于MBSE的列车领域研究现状探析

介绍了基于模型的系统工程的定义和发展历程。分别对庞巴迪和阿尔斯通两家公司在MBSE方面的研究和应用情况进行了分析,具体分析其建模工具和建模实例,还分析了Connecta和Safe4Rail项目的实施过程以及主要的研究内容。分析结果表明,MBSE已经在国外的列车领域经历了学习、探索和应用推广的过程,并在新产品的研发过程中得到了应用,对我国列车领域开展MBSE的研究具有积极的借鉴意义。     

考虑移步需求的无桩型共享单车动态调度研究

共享单车系统自发的不均衡性导致单车数量分布与用户需求分布之间产生偏移，降低了系统服务能力，需要调度实现再平衡. 现有动态调度算法缺乏考虑起点车辆供给不足，用户在出行过程中“再次”取车的移步需求，难以准确识别用户真实的出行需求分布，降低了调度效果. 本文提出以用户出行选择行为为下层，以调度车辆路径规划为上层的双层规划模型框架，设计结合仿真系统的启发式求解算法. 算例场景基于上海市虹口、杨浦区共享单车历史出行数据搭建，并进行网格化处理. 算例结果表明，模型能有效识别移步需求，提高共享单车的供需匹配能力. 针对各类调度资源配置情况，共享单车的供需匹配率提升18.07%~ 19.89%，提高了共享单车系统的管理效率.     

冰雪条件下中国驾驶员跟驰行为及模型研究

分析驾驶员在冰雪条件下的驾驶行为特性，建立考虑驾驶员行为特性的跟驰模型，有助于丰富现有交通流理论.通过招募驾驶员开展实车跟驰试验，对比分析正常条件与冰雪条件下的驾驶行为差异.进而基于任务难度均衡理论构建包含人类因素参数的任务难度模块，引入改进后的智能驾驶员模型，并采用车辆轨迹数据对模型进行标定和有效性验证.研究表明：驾驶员在跟驰行驶过程中受外界刺激及自身驾驶能力影响时会对车辆行驶状态进行动态调整，试图保持期望间距，且速度与前车一致的状态；冰雪条件下驾驶员采取风险补偿行为，其车头时距波动幅度较正常条件收窄，模型引入人类因素参数可以较好地描述其差异性. 模型有效性验证表明，新模型在6个仿真场景中的表现都优于传统智能驾驶员模型，且表现出更好的鲁棒性.研究结果可为冰雪条件下的交通管理措施制定提供理论支持.